Tuesday, 9 August 2011

Markets panic as world leaders try to restore confidence

Efforts by global leaders to restore confidence failed to do the trick Tuesday as markets hit new lows in a massive sell-off driven by fears of a new recession.
A trader reacts to down market on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Efforts by US President Barack Obama and other global leaders to restore confidence failed to do the trick as markets hit new lows in a massive sell-off driven by fears of a new recession.
Thai stocks slumped 35.65 points on Tuesday.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) main index ended today at 1,042.54 points, down 3.31 per cent from yesterday's close. The trade value was 63.60 billion baht.
The SET yesterday dropped 15.19 points, or 1.39 per cent.
European stock markets fell deeply into the red in morning trade, with early gains for some wiped out quickly and without mercy in near panic sales.
"We have now moved into an emergency phase of the eurozone debt crisis," ING debt strategist Padhriaic Garvey.
"The financial crisis has changed its nature and become even more vicious," Berenberg Bank chief economist Holger Schmieding added.
All the main markets were showing major losses, with London down more than four percent, Frankfurt slumping nearly six percent and Paris more than three percent.
Investors were now looking ahead to US Federal Reserve meeting later in the day in the hope the US central bank could come up with some fresh of cash to spur activity under its policy known as Quantitative Easing (QE) but many were sceptical it has any firepower left with which to stem the tide.
In Europe, a subject of growing concern was the debt ratings of Britain and especially France, which would be expected to make a major contribution to any increase in emergency lending to Italy and Spain, seen as most at risk.
"The thinking is if the US (rating) can be downgraded, then the likes of the UK and France could be next in the firing line," Garvey said. "The threat to the French (top) AAA rating is the most worrying."
Paris' finances would be seriously hurt too if the eurozone increased the size of its emergency fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which is too small to bail out Italy or Spain if they go the way of Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
US President Barack Obama sought Monday to convince markets that an historic US downgrade by Standard & Poor's from the top rating of AAA to AA+ did not reflect the country's true state.
The US president stressed in a televised speech that the United States "always will be a triple-A country."
But on Wall  Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 634.76 points -- its steepest one-day drop since late 2008 -- to close at 10,809.85, erasing all of its gains since last October.
Obama also spoke with Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, calling for a united fight against a global economic slowdown.
"Zapatero and Obama agreed to maintain contact between the economic teams of both governments so as to continue coordination with the twin goals of promoting stability and avoiding a global economic slowdown," the Spanish premier's office said in a statement.
A day earlier the Group of 20 industrialised and emerging economies had also pledged to work together to restore financial stability and foster growth, which many economists stress is the ultimate solution to the crisis.
Few Asian markets were impressed by what Barclays Capital called "consoling words" however and most closed Tuesday with additional losses following steep drops the day before.
Tokyo gave up 1.68 percent while Hong Kong plunged 5.66 percent.
Seoul was down by 3.63 percent meanwhile though Taipei limited its losses and Shanghai managed to end the day essentially unchanged. Sydney staged a massive turnaround to end the day with a gain of 1.22 percent.
Berenberg's Schmieding said the US Federal Reserve was "probably heading for a new discussion about a third round of bond purchases," which markets are calling QE3, but did not expect an announcement on Tuesday.
"With agressive intervention, central markets can stop panics," he said, urging Fed chairman Ben Bernanke to disregard "objections from US hardliners" in the anti-tax Tea Party wing of opposition Republicans.
Meanwhile, European political leaders worked to obtain parliamentary approval for the terms of an emergency rescue plan agreed on last month but that could take several months and has roused opposition in several countries.
EFSF purchases of eurozone government bonds to ease market pressure on weakened countries and the European Central Bank, which had only reluctantly agreed to buy public debt, will not suffice if a big country like Italy or Spain needs help.
"The degree of intervention needs to be significantly larger" than the EFSF's warchest of 440 billion euros ($625 billion), Garvey noted, and Germany, the biggest eurozone donor, does not seem ready to boost it further.
Christoph Schmidt, an economic advisor to the German government, wrote Tuesday in business daily Handelsblatt that enlarging the EFSF was "unacceptable" and unnecessary.
He warned that "a constantly widening liability union through the back-door, whether through bond purchases by the European Central Bank or through the eurozone rescue fund, will be rejected by voters sooner rather than later."
Germany holds the key to funding of indebted eurozone countries, and in another Handelsblatt editorial, Thomas Hanke noted that Europe faced similar challenges in the late 1920s and said: "We don't have to make the same mistake again today."
He pressed Chancellor Angela Merkel to make the case to German voters, asking: "Is it so difficult for Mrs Merkel to explain that?"

European shares plunge in volatile trading


Market Data

LAST UPDATED AT 12:56 GMT
Dow Jones10809.85Down-634.76-5.55%
Nasdaq2357.69Down-174.72-6.90%
FTSE 1005072.80Up3.850.08%
Dax5824.15Down-99.12-1.67%
Cac 403135.89Up10.700.34%
BBC Global 305033.96Down-11.38-0.23%
European share values have seen more dramatic falls, following similar sell-offs in the US and Asia.
But in a volatile morning's trading, indexes like London's FTSE 100, that had fallen up to 5.5%, were positive by lunchtime.
Traders remain on edge about the levels of debt facing the US and some eurozone countries, and the impact this could have on their already weak economies.
Bank shares remained among the worst hit with RBS down 7.5%.
However, there was better news on the bond markets where the yield on both Spanish and Italian government bonds fell for the second day.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has begun intervening in the markets to try to keep the cost of borrowing down for the two countries, which are struggling to avoid a Greece-style bail-out by the authorities.
Major crisis
The head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, defended his institution's decision: "It is the worst crisis since World War II and it could have been the worst crisis since World War I if leaders hadn't taken the important decisions," he said in an interview with the French radio station, Europe 1.

Analysis

The question of global debt has been the elephant in the room since the banking collapse in 2008.
Investors have been happy to push the issue to one side, but western nations are fast running out of cash and the absence of growth in their economies means the day of reckoning may soon be upon us.
The sell-off on world stock markets is worrying but not unprecedented. The London market has fallen almost 20% during the past month which means we could soon officially class it as a bear market - a period during which share price falls outstrip rises.
Traders are convinced that share prices remain good value for money. They are certainly a lot cheaper than they were a couple of weeks ago. The big question is - when will investors start to buy again?
It's a difficult call to make, especially when all the traffic has been one-way - down. Markets thrive on speculation but hate uncertainty. Even so, after nine straight days of losses it must soon be time for investors to call the bottom of this sell-off.
But Mr Trichet indicated that the main responsibility for fighting the debt crisis lay with eurozone governments and not the central bank.
The eurozone is planning to beef up the powers of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) so that it can start to support government bonds by buying them on the open market. Individual governments need to ratify the proposals and delays in doing so have only added to the current uncertainty.
Meanwhile Spain's finance minister, Elena Salgado, has again insisted her country does not need a bailout, saying that Spain's total debt was 20 percentage points below the EU average at around 64% of Spanish GDP.
There are also growing worries about US government debt, which caused its credit rating to be downgraded from the top triple A grade - a move that lead to severe falls on Monday of between 3%-5% for European share markets and a 5.6% fall for the US Dow Jones index - its biggest in three years, with bank shares leading the way down.
Bank of America closed down 20% in US trading, with other major banks also badly hit.
Traders are hoping for help from the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, whose open markets committee (FOMC) is holding a policy meeting later on Tuesday.
Stephanie Flanders assess the options facing US and eurozone leaders
Giles Watts, head of equities at City Index said: "All eyes will now be on the Federal Reserve tonight, which must instil a bit of confidence in the market and tonight's FOMC decision gives it the perfect platform to do so."
On Tuesday, Asian markets suffered further steep falls, although they had recovered around half of their overnight losses by the close.
The Nikkei finished down 1.7%, South Korea's Kospi down 3.64%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 2.8%.
Lacking options

Start Quote

Investors' anxiety is based on evidence of economic slowdown in many of the developed western economies. And that anxiety has the propensity to become self-fulfilling”
Alan Brown, chief investment officer of Schroders, told the BBC that investors could see no way out of the current troubles.
"The underlying story is all of the weak economic data that we've seen across the eurozone and the UK and the US over the past several weeks," he said.
"I think that investors are recognising that the authorities have very few policy levers left. They have exhausted fiscal options, interest rates in most places are at rock bottom. That is why markets are very nervous."
But Mr Brown said the ECB's moves to support Spain and Italy were "potentially very helpful".
"If they are able to keep a lid on yields in Italy and Spain then they will succeed in stopping the markets creating their own reality whereby they drive yields on Italian and Spanish debt to levels which would cause solvency problems in those countries."
"What's rocking the market is a growth scare," said Kathleen Gaffney of Loomis Sayles.
She said investors were concerned about "how Europe and the US are going to work their way out of a high debt burden" if the global economy slows.
Crude oil prices continued to slide amid concerns that if the economy did slow down, demand would wane in coming months.
Brent crude fell to a six-month low below $100 a barrel before rebounding to $103.31.
However, gold hit another new record of $1,771 an ounce as investors looked for assets that are considered to be less risky. The Swiss franc also gained.

 
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